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Table 5 ROC analysis of the predictive accuracy of the SAPROF, HCR-20, and HCR-20–SAPROF for violence

From: Strength-based assessment for future violence risk: a retrospective validation study of the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF) Japanese version in forensic psychiatric inpatients

Observation period Scale Area under the curve 95% confidence interval
6 months SAPROF total 0.87 0.79–0.95
 Internal 0.83 0.73–0.93
 Motivational 0.82 0.70–0.94
 External 0.74 0.60–0.89
 Final judgment 0.82 0.69–0.95
HCR-20 0.79 0.69–0.90
HCR-20–SAPROF 0.87 0.79–0.94
12 months SAPROF total 0.85 0.77–0.94
 Internal 0.83 0.74–0.92
 Motivational 0.8 0.70–0.91
 External 0.72 0.59–0.85
 Final judgment 0.82 0.72–0.92
HCR-20 0.67 0.54–0.80
HCR-20–SAPROF 0.78 0.67–0.88
  1. The values on the SAPROF (total score, subscale scores, and Final Protection Judgment) do not reflect risk of violent incidents but, rather, their absence. Conversely, values on the HCR-20 and the HCR-20–SAPROF reflect risk of violent incidents